Coronavirus US: New York City cases could soon fall to 19 a day

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New coronavirus cases in Manhattan could fall to just 19 a day by mid-June if social distancing is maintained but forecast projections show that easing restrictions in parts of the country, like Miami, could see daily infections surge to more than 700. 

A new model shows that parts of the country like hard-hit New York City should be able to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 infections if people maintain social distancing even as restrictions are eased and businesses start reopening. 

The model from the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia uses cellphone data to track changes in mobility to predict the trajectory of new infections over the next four weeks.

According to the forecast, daily infections in all five boroughs of hard-hit New York City could decrease by June 18 if social distancing is maintained. 

By June 18, daily cases in Manhattan could decrease to 19, while Queens could reach 73 cases a day, the Bronx could see 59, Brooklyn could see 72 and Staten Island could reach just three cases. 

The most recent data shows new infections per day in New York City was at 466 as of Wednesday. It is down from the peak day in the week of April where more than 6,600 infections were recorded. 

The model from the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, shows that daily infections in all five boroughs of hard-hit New York City could decrease by June 18 if social distancing is maintained. By June 18, daily cases in Manhattan (above) could decrease to 19

The city currently has more than 192,000 infections and over 16,000 deaths. New York state, which is the epicenter of the US outbreak, in total has more than 356,000 cases and a death toll of over 23,000. 

While parts of New York state are now slowly reopening, New York City remains locked down because it is yet to meet some of the criteria set out by Governor Andrew Cuomo. 

Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week that the city is not likely to even begin reopening until the first half of June when phase one of the state’s reopening plan is introduced. 

That first phase will allow for curbside retail to start up, as well as the construction and manufacturing industries.   

New York City already has low enough infection, death and hospitalization rates to meet Cuomo’s reopening requirements. 

It remains locked down because the city needs another 3 percent of its hospital beds to come free (around 630), 4 percent of its ICU beds (officials won’t give a precise number for this) and needs to hire more contact tracers.  

De Blasio said on Thursday that those numbers wouldn’t be met until June.  

By June 18, daily cases in Brooklyn could decline to just 72 a day if social distancing measures are maintained

By June 18, daily cases in Brooklyn could decline to just 72 a day if social distancing measures are maintained

By June 18, daily cases in Brooklyn could decline to just 72 a day if social distancing measures are maintained

Queens could see 73 new cases a day by June 18 if current social distancing measures are maintained by residents

Queens could see 73 new cases a day by June 18 if current social distancing measures are maintained by residents

Queens could see 73 new cases a day by June 18 if current social distancing measures are maintained by residents

The Bronx could see 59 new infections per day by June 18 if social distancing is upheld

The Bronx could see 59 new infections per day by June 18 if social distancing is upheld

The Bronx could see 59 new infections per day by June 18 if social distancing is upheld

Staten Island's daily new infections could decline to just three by June 18, according to the model's forecast

Staten Island's daily new infections could decline to just three by June 18, according to the model's forecast

Staten Island’s daily new infections could decline to just three by June 18, according to the model’s forecast

‘We have to talk through with the state if there’s any particular features of the approach here. We need to think about the ramifications of people getting around and congregating, there’s things we’ve got to work through that are particularly challenging for the city,’ he said. 

‘Timing – I’m saying the first half of June. Obviously giving a little bit of range there, but somewhere between June 1 and 15.’ 

He then suggested it could be even longer, saying: ‘We aren’t going to rest on our laurels…this disease has thrown a lot of curve balls. We’re basing it on the trend which has been pretty damn consistent.

‘Basically it comes down to will it be the first week of June or the second week of June that we could move into phase one.’ 

The four-phase plan to reopening lets manufacturing, construction and retail start first then office workers and hair salons are in the second phase.

The third phase includes restaurants resuming dine-in services ans the fourth is entertainment and sports events.  

In Miami, daily cases could spike to 746 by June 16, the model shows. The most recent data from May 14 showed that daily infections were down to 274. Florida has lifted restrictions by allowing retail stores, restaurants, gyms and personal care services to reopen

In Miami, daily cases could spike to 746 by June 16, the model shows. The most recent data from May 14 showed that daily infections were down to 274. Florida has lifted restrictions by allowing retail stores, restaurants, gyms and personal care services to reopen

In Miami, daily cases could spike to 746 by June 16, the model shows. The most recent data from May 14 showed that daily infections were down to 274. Florida has lifted restrictions by allowing retail stores, restaurants, gyms and personal care services to reopen

The model shows that infections in Houston, Texas could potentially surge to 2,247 by June 16. In comparison, the city, which is in Harris County, recorded 205 daily cases on May 14, according to the model. Texas, which currently has more than 51,000 cases and 1,400 deaths, has allowed retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls to reopen at a 25%

The model shows that infections in Houston, Texas could potentially surge to 2,247 by June 16. In comparison, the city, which is in Harris County, recorded 205 daily cases on May 14, according to the model. Texas, which currently has more than 51,000 cases and 1,400 deaths, has allowed retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls to reopen at a 25%

The model shows that infections in Houston, Texas could potentially surge to 2,247 by June 16. In comparison, the city, which is in Harris County, recorded 205 daily cases on May 14, according to the model. Texas, which currently has more than 51,000 cases and 1,400 deaths, has allowed retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls to reopen at a 25%

The model predicts that new daily infections in Montgomery, Alabama could surge to 201 by June 16. Currently, daily cases have been slowly increasing in the city with the count at 48 as of May 15. In Alabama, which has more than 13,000 infections and 520 deaths, gyms and personal care services have been able to reopen. Restuarants can open with limited seating

The model predicts that new daily infections in Montgomery, Alabama could surge to 201 by June 16. Currently, daily cases have been slowly increasing in the city with the count at 48 as of May 15. In Alabama, which has more than 13,000 infections and 520 deaths, gyms and personal care services have been able to reopen. Restuarants can open with limited seating

The model predicts that new daily infections in Montgomery, Alabama could surge to 201 by June 16. Currently, daily cases have been slowly increasing in the city with the count at 48 as of May 15. In Alabama, which has more than 13,000 infections and 520 deaths, gyms and personal care services have been able to reopen. Restuarants can open with limited seating

Meanwhile, cases in Atlanta, Georgia could start increasing and hit 59 on June 16. Infections in the city, which is in Fulton County, have been rising and dropping sporadically since March. The state, which was the first to aggressively start reopening, has recorded more than 41,000 infections and over 1,700 deaths

Meanwhile, cases in Atlanta, Georgia could start increasing and hit 59 on June 16. Infections in the city, which is in Fulton County, have been rising and dropping sporadically since March. The state, which was the first to aggressively start reopening, has recorded more than 41,000 infections and over 1,700 deaths

Meanwhile, cases in Atlanta, Georgia could start increasing and hit 59 on June 16. Infections in the city, which is in Fulton County, have been rising and dropping sporadically since March. The state, which was the first to aggressively start reopening, has recorded more than 41,000 infections and over 1,700 deaths

In Los Angeles, the model forecasts daily infection could be at 764 by June 18. Daily cases have been spiking in the city with 1,248 infections recorded last week on May 13, the model shows. California, which has more than 86,000 cases and over 3,500 deaths, still has strict measures in place but has allowed low risk businesses and manufacturing to start

In Los Angeles, the model forecasts daily infection could be at 764 by June 18. Daily cases have been spiking in the city with 1,248 infections recorded last week on May 13, the model shows. California, which has more than 86,000 cases and over 3,500 deaths, still has strict measures in place but has allowed low risk businesses and manufacturing to start

In Los Angeles, the model forecasts daily infection could be at 764 by June 18. Daily cases have been spiking in the city with 1,248 infections recorded last week on May 13, the model shows. California, which has more than 86,000 cases and over 3,500 deaths, still has strict measures in place but has allowed low risk businesses and manufacturing to start

It comes as all 50 states at least partially reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees across the country. 

While the PolicyLab model showed daily infections for New York City could decrease, it predicted that cases could surge in states that have more aggressively reopened if those residents didn’t maintain the same social distancing.  

In Miami, daily cases could spike to 746 by June 16, the model shows. The most recent data from May 14 showed that daily infections were down to 274. 

Florida has lifted restrictions by allowing retail stores, restaurants, gyms and personal care services to reopen. Sporting venues can also resume without spectators but bars, nightclubs and cinemas remain closed. 

The state currently has more than 48,000 infections and over 2,100 deaths. 

The model shows that infections in Houston, Texas could potentially surge to 2,247 by June 16. 

In comparison, the city, which is in Harris County, recorded 205 daily cases on May 14, according to the model.

Texas, which currently has more than 51,000 cases and 1,400 deaths, has allowed retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls to reopen at a 25%. In some parts of the state they can open at 50% capacity. 

The model predicts that new daily infections in Montgomery, Alabama could surge to 201 by June 16. 

Currently, daily cases have been slowly increasing in the city with the count at 48 as of May 15.   

While parts of New York state are now slowly reopening, New York City remains locked down because it is yet to meet some of the criteria set out by Governor Andrew Cuomo

While parts of New York state are now slowly reopening, New York City remains locked down because it is yet to meet some of the criteria set out by Governor Andrew Cuomo

While parts of New York state are now slowly reopening, New York City remains locked down because it is yet to meet some of the criteria set out by Governor Andrew Cuomo 

Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week that the city is not likely to even begin reopening until the first half of June when phase one of the state's reopening plan is introduced

Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week that the city is not likely to even begin reopening until the first half of June when phase one of the state's reopening plan is introduced

Mayor Bill de Blasio said this week that the city is not likely to even begin reopening until the first half of June when phase one of the state’s reopening plan is introduced 

CUOMO AND DE BLASIO’S CONFLICTING GUIDANCE

Andrew Cuomo gave a four tier plan to reopening the economy once a region’s requirements have been met. But there remain a large number of questions about the practical reality of getting back to work. 

Phase 1 is manufacturing, construction and curbside retail. 

Phase 2 is office workers and beauty services so long as they reach social distancing guidelines. 

Phase 3 is restaurants and food services.

Phase 4 is entertainment.  

TIMELINE FOR REOPENING 

Cuomo says that NYC will be able to reopen when it meets the requirements. de Blasio said on Thursday that the city won’t even start to reopen until mid-June.  

BEACHES

Cuomo has allowed beaches across the state to reopen and will let people swim there. 

After flip-flopping on the issue, de Blasio said he would allow NYC beaches to open but that people were not allowed to swim at them. 

PUBLIC EVENTS 

Cuomo is now allowing church gatherings of 10 people or less and he is allowing commemorative Memorial Day services of 10 or less, including vehicle parades.

de Blasio says all public parades will be canceled throughout all of June.

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In Alabama, which has more than 13,000 infections and 520 deaths, gyms and personal care services have been able to reopen. Restaurants can also reopen with limited seating. 

Meanwhile, cases in Atlanta, Georgia could start increasing and hit 59 on June 16. 

Infections in the city, which is in Fulton County, have been rising and dropping sporadically since March.   

The state, which was the first to aggressively start reopening, has recorded more than 41,000 infections and over 1,700 deaths. 

Gyms, personal care and restaurants have been allowed to reopen in the state.  

Meanwhile in Los Angeles, the model forecasts daily infection could be at 764 by June 18. 

Daily cases have been spiking in the city with 1,248 infections recorded last week on May 13, the model shows.

California, which has more than 86,000 cases and over 3,500 deaths, still has strict measures in place but has allowed low risk businesses like clothing stores, sporting goods and florists to resume with curbside pickup. 

Manufacturers can also commence again with social distancing.

Gyms, restaurants, bars and personal care services remain closed. Sports without spectators can recommence this month. 

Researchers behind the model initially started out by giving long range forecasts but recently pivoted to four-week periods as all 50 states started partially reopening. 

All 50 states at least partially reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees across the country

All 50 states at least partially reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees across the country

All 50 states at least partially reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social distancing in varying degrees across the country

The researchers said data showed that reopening was possible if it was done cautiously and slowly. 

They have noted that the key now is to understanding the risk of spikes in new cases as social distancing behaviors changes across the country. 

‘In that light, the travel we have witnessed through our tracking of Unacast cell phone data to non-essential businesses in the last two weeks has been revealing,’ the researchers say. 

‘The lowest amount of social distancing we observed still remained about 50 percent as of last week in our large cities, which equates to going back about one-fourth of the way to normal travel to non-essential businesses.

‘However, we’re also seeing in our models that some areas – particularly in the south – that have moved more quickly to reopen are showing a higher risk for resurgence.’

They warned that if people in some cities like Houston and Florida’s Palm Beach aren’t being cautious about wearing masks in indoor crowded areas and don’t practice good hygiene, local governments may need to intervene again.

States that are only reopening certain parts that have low infection rates are proving that the pandemic can be managed, the researchers said. 

‘Given these cautious actions by our governments, we have already seen that the predicted resurgence in most places that are beginning to reopen – rather, daily cases are either plateauing or falling,’ they said. 

‘But the picture our models are painting for Texas and Florida provide ample evidence to others who would choose to move too quickly. We see these concerns even as we adjust for additional testing capacity that might have inflated our forecasts.’

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